TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — As President Donald Trump’s approval ratings dwindle, Florida Democrats see their opportunity to advance slipping away, with fears of losing up to four U.S. House seats in the upcoming midterms due to a newly approved congressional map enacted by the Republican-led state legislature.
The map, supported by Governor Ron DeSantis, aims to align with Florida’s demographic growth and political tendencies. Democrats, however, criticize it as a strategic maneuver by Trump, urging Republicans to redraw maps nationwide.
The redistricting employs “packing and cracking,” core gerrymandering strategies. “Packing” consolidates similar voters into fewer districts to diminish their influence, while “cracking” disperses them across districts to weaken their electoral impact.
Analysts from both parties note that under the new arrangement, Trump won 24 districts in 2024 by significant margins, potentially leading to a Republican gain of four seats if they secure all these areas. Legal challenges are anticipated, but here’s an overview of the impact on Florida’s current Democrat-held areas.
Impact on Tampa Bay: Democratic Seats in Jeopardy
Once key swing areas, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, including Tampa and St. Petersburg, now face changes. The existing division between Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s right-leaning and Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor’s left-leaning districts will be altered to favor Republicans, with Castor’s district incorporating more conservative regions.
Castor denounced the new layout as “blatantly illegal” due to Florida’s constitutional prohibition of partisan gerrymandering but vowed to continue advocating for Tampa Bay families. Luna, despite gaining Republican precincts, remains a Democratic target due to Trump’s declining popularity.
Orlando’s Democratic Districts Consolidated
Currently, Democrats Darren Soto and Maxwell Frost hold adjacent districts around Orlando. The redistricting will merge these into a singular Democratic stronghold, leaving outlying areas more Republican-leaning. Frost criticized the map for diluting Orange County voters’ influence, while Soto condemned the governor for targeting Florida’s Puerto Rican community.
Changes in South Florida’s Black Representation
A predominantly Black district in south Florida, previously compliant with the Voting Rights Act, will be dismantled. This district, vacated by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick amid an ethics probe, was targeted by DeSantis as a race-based gerrymander.
Palm Beach and Broward Counties Redefined
Reps. Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz face significant changes with their districts in Palm Beach and Broward counties being reshaped. Frankel’s district is becoming more Democratic, while Moskowitz’s area is split into three, complicating his reelection bid. Parkland will now be part of a Republican district stretching to Naples.
Wasserman-Schultz and Wilson’s Districts Affected
In Miami-Dade, the restructuring impacts Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Frederica Wilson. Wasserman-Schultz’s current district does not fall into the newly defined Democratic areas, forcing her to choose between running in a new Democratic district or a Republican-favored one. Meanwhile, Wilson is positioned to remain in the newly formed Democratic Miami-Dade district.
Despite these setbacks, Democrats see potential in targeting Republican Reps. María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez, whose districts have not gained substantial Republican support post-redistricting.
