PARIS (AP) — A crucial verdict is expected from the Paris appeals court regarding Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement case on Tuesday. This ruling may impact her eligibility to participate in France’s upcoming presidential election.
The 57-year-old politician is contesting a March 2025 judgment that convicted her and fellow members of the National Rally for improperly utilizing European Parliament funds. These funds were allegedly used to pay party employees instead of EU parliamentary aides from 2004 to 2016. The initial court decision included a prison sentence, suspended on appeal, and a five-year prohibition from holding public office. Le Pen continues to deny the charges and remains determined to pursue a fourth presidential run.
If Le Pen’s candidacy is blocked, her 30-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, might step in as the party’s candidate, potentially altering the dynamics of the race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.
Potential Outcomes of the Appeal
Acquittal Sought by Le Pen
The appeals court could deliver an acquittal, which would be the most favorable outcome for Le Pen. During the five-week appeal trial, she conceded to a “mistake,” stating some aides paid with EU funds worked for her party, then known as the National Front. She claimed she believed such arrangements were permissible. Additionally, Le Pen criticized EU Parliament officials for not alerting her party to any potential rule violations at the time.
Rodolphe Bosselut, Le Pen’s lawyer, emphasized the importance of the decision, stating, “is entrusting you with the work of her life, and the question is thus whether it will end here or whether it can be rebuilt.” An acquittal could still be contested by prosecutors at the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court.
Reduced Ban on Office Holding
The court might uphold Le Pen’s conviction but lower the office-holding ban to two years or less, or even eliminate it. The original five-year ban has been effective since March 31, 2025. A reduced ban would end before the French presidential election in April 2027. However, prison time, electronic monitoring, or other restrictions could hinder her campaign efforts.
Le Pen has indicated she might not pursue a presidential bid under such constraints, stating, “If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible.”
Potential for a Heavier Sentence
Prosecutors have urged the appeals court to impose a four-year prison sentence, with three years suspended, and a five-year ban on holding elected office, accusing Le Pen of heading a scheme to “siphon off” EU funds for her party’s benefit. The court can decide to enforce the office ban immediately, as the lower court did. Le Pen retains the right to appeal to the Court of Cassation, though it’s uncertain if this would delay the sentence.
Le Pen’s Strategic Considerations
Le Pen has expressed concern about the timing of her decision, stating, “You can’t launch a presidential campaign at the last minute.” She fears that prolonged legal proceedings, including a potential appeal to the Court of Cassation, could hinder her ability to run, as she would not risk her party’s prospects.
The French presidential race is anticipated to gain momentum in September and intensify early in the following year. Candidates need backing from 500 elected officials to qualify, which complicates replacing a nominee late in the campaign. Le Pen noted, “If I’m prevented from running but the Court of Cassation rules in my favor three or four months later, it will be too late to conduct a proper presidential campaign.”
