As the midterm elections approach, former President Donald Trump is actively working to ensure that the Republican Party retains its slender majority in the House of Representatives. His efforts are aimed at preventing a scenario similar to his first term when Democrats gained control of the House and initiated two impeachment proceedings against him. Trump’s strategy includes involvement in candidate recruitment, offering strategic guidance, and assuring that history will not repeat itself.
In contrast, Democrats, encouraged by the results of several 2025 elections, are eager for Trump to be the GOP’s leading figure. They are also focused on improving their appeal to voters, including the increasing number of independents. The ongoing redistricting controversies, partly driven by Trump, could impact the final outcomes as he aims to avoid a repeat of the 2018 midterms.
The battle for control of the House will be determined by a small portion of its 435 seats. Democrats are zeroing in on nearly 40 Republican-held districts, whereas Republicans are targeting several dozen Democrat-held seats.
Historical Patterns in Midterm Elections
Historically, the party in control of the White House rarely gains ground in midterm elections, often experiencing significant losses, especially during the first midterms of a presidency. Trump acknowledged this trend, noting its consistency. The 2026 midterms present unique circumstances as Trump is neither a traditional new president nor a conventional second-term president, given his nonconsecutive term.
Since 1932, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats during midterms, with gains occurring only thrice, the last being in 2002 under George W. Bush. Recent elections have seen the president’s party lose control of the House, as was the case for Trump in 2018. Additionally, with numerous House members not seeking reelection, a significant number of seats are up for grabs this cycle.
Insights from the 2025 Elections
Democrats achieved significant victories across the country in the 2025 elections, often outperforming their 2024 results. These elections are not perfect predictors of midterm outcomes, but they mirror trends observed in 2017 before Democrats’ success in 2018 and the Republican wave of 2010 following strong GOP performances in 2009.
The Trump Factor
Despite Trump’s approval ratings, which stood at just 40% in January according to recent AP-NORC polling, he and House Republicans are jointly committed. Georgia Rep. Brian Jack noted that Trump inspires many GOP candidates, emphasizing their focus on his achievements. However, this low approval may challenge the mobilization of core Republicans and independents.
Historically, a president’s approval rating has correlated with their party’s midterm performance. A Gallup survey indicates a rise in adults identifying as independents, driven by dissatisfaction with the ruling party.
Campaign Issues
Economic issues, particularly health care costs, will dominate the campaign discourse. A December AP-NORC poll revealed that 40% of respondents mentioned health care costs as a priority, alongside immigration and cost-of-living concerns.
Democrats criticize Trump for not addressing inflation, while Trump labels it a “hoax” yet acknowledges economic realities, urging Republicans to negotiate on health care and housing costs. He advocates presenting recent domestic policy laws as tax cuts favoring working-class voters, while Democrats argue these laws favor wealthier Americans and cut essential programs.
Candidate Significance
Both parties emphasize the importance of candidates, especially in swing districts. Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood highlighted the district-specific nature of the races. Despite national trends, credible candidates are essential for success in competitive districts.
Democrats were disappointed by Rep. Jared Golden’s decision not to seek reelection, while Republicans are optimistic about former Gov. Paul LePage. Democrats are also hopeful about candidates like Elaine Luria, aiming to reclaim a Virginia district.
Impact of Redistricting
With a 220-215 advantage, Republicans are leveraging new maps that favor their party, a move mirrored by Democrats. This redistricting, particularly in Texas and California, could enhance Republican odds, though several maps face legal challenges.
If changes to the Voting Rights Act proceed, Republican-controlled states could alter districts to diminish Democratic advantages, especially where nonwhite voters are influential. The final map remains uncertain, potentially aiding Republicans in retaining the majority or leading to a narrower Democratic majority should voter sentiment shift.
