Political Rhetoric and the Reality of Incarceration Rates in the US
The fear of street crime has long been a politically charged issue in the United States. Politicians have often leveraged this fear to secure voter support, as seen in historical campaigns from the anti-Black Willie Horton ads by US GOP President George H. W. Bush in 1988 to President Donald Trump’s successful White House bids in 2016 and 2024. Over the decades, the tough-on-crime narrative has shifted, encompassing not only racial issues but also the demonization of migrants. Recent rhetoric has even reached international platforms, with discussions on immigration as a form of invasion contributing to societal decline.
However, how does this rhetoric align with actual data regarding incarceration rates among immigrants and native-born individuals in the US? A recent study by the Cato Institute, an organization known for its contributions to governmental efficiency discussions, sheds light on this issue. The study, conducted by Cato scholars Alex Nowrasteh and Krit Chanwong, utilized annual data from the American Community Survey to explore these incarceration rates.
According to their analysis, immigrants show substantially lower incarceration rates compared to native-born Americans. They evaluated the incarceration risk for individuals born in 1990 based on immigration status. By age 33, native-born Americans from this cohort were found to be 267% more likely to be incarcerated than their immigrant counterparts. Specifically, 11% of native-born Americans had been incarcerated compared to just 3% of immigrants, suggesting that “other countries really are sending their best.”
Contrasting this data, White House border czar Tom Homan has been involved in federal immigration raids aimed at “targeting the worst of the worst,” despite allegations of his involvement in a $50,000 Federal Bureau of Investigation sting.
Incarceration Risks Across Ethnicities
The study further explored incarceration risks among different racial and ethnic groups. Immigrants born in 1990 had significantly lower incarceration risks than native-born Americans across all races and ethnicities. Hispanic, Asian, Black, and white immigrants, whether legal or illegal, each had lower incarceration rates than white native-born Americans. Notably, Asian illegal immigrants displayed the lowest risks at approximately 0.08%.
“Noncitizen criminals who are incarcerated are deported after serving their sentences,” explained Alex Nowrasteh and Krit Chanwong, highlighting one reason for the lower incarceration rates among immigrants. This deportation means these individuals do not participate in future American surveys, as they are no longer present in the country.
Ultimately, it is evident that immigrants are not the driving force behind a crime wave in the US. Instead, corporate crime, exemplified by companies like Boeing with incidents such as the 737 MAX aircraft crashes, poses a more significant concern domestically.
