U.S. Population Growth Slows Amid Immigration Decrease
The U.S. population is nearing 342 million in 2025, with a significant dip in growth rate attributed to President Donald Trump’s immigration policies, as per the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates released on Tuesday. This year’s growth rate has plummeted to 0.5% from 2024’s nearly 1% surge, the highest in two decades, largely driven by immigration.
In 2025, immigration added around 1.3 million individuals, a stark contrast to 2024’s 2.8 million. If the current trajectory persists, immigration numbers by mid-2026 could drop to merely 321,000, according to Census Bureau projections. Notably, these estimates do not differentiate between legal and unauthorized immigration.
Historically, the lowest growth rate in the past 125 years was recorded during the 2021 coronavirus pandemic, with the population increasing by just 0.16% or 522,000 people, alongside a mere 376,000 rise in immigration due to travel restrictions. Prior to this, the lowest rate was under 0.5% in 1919 amid the Spanish flu.
Despite births surpassing deaths by 519,000 last year, the natural increase falls short compared to the early 2000s, when it ranged from 1.6 to 1.9 million.
State-Level Impacts of Immigration Decline
The decrease in immigration has notably affected traditional immigrant-attracting states. California, for instance, experienced a net population loss of 9,500 in 2025, a shift from the prior year’s 232,000 increase despite similar domestic out-migration figures. This change was due to a drop in net immigration from 361,000 in 2024 to 109,000 in 2025.
Florida also saw declines in both immigrant and domestic arrivals. The state, grappling with rising property and insurance costs, gained only 22,000 domestic migrants in 2025 compared to 64,000 in 2024, with immigrant numbers falling from over 411,000 to 178,000. New York’s growth was minimal, adding just 1,008 people as immigrant net migration fell from 207,000 to 95,600.
In contrast, South Carolina, Idaho, and North Carolina recorded the highest growth rates between 1.3% and 1.5%. Texas, Florida, and North Carolina saw the largest numeric increases, while states like California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia faced population declines. The South remains the fastest-growing region, yet its additions dropped from 1.7 million in 2024 to 1.1 million in 2025.
“Many of these states are going to show even smaller growth when we get to next year,” remarked Brookings demographer William Frey on Tuesday.
Trump Administration’s Immigration Policies and Their Consequences
As researchers evaluate the impact of the Trump administration’s renewed immigration policies following his 2025 presidential win, the latest figures, covering July 2024 to July 2025, reflect significant policy shifts. Trump’s focus on southern border migration was pivotal in his campaign.
The data captures enforcement surges in Los Angeles and Portland but does not account for the subsequent impacts in cities like Chicago and Minneapolis. The divergence from 2024 is stark, as international migration constituted 84% of that year’s 3.3 million population increase, partly due to a revised counting method for humanitarian admissions.
“They do reflect recent trends we have seen in out-migration, where the numbers of people coming in is down and the numbers going out is up,” said Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist at the Census Bureau.
Understanding the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates
Unlike the decennial census, which impacts congressional seats, Electoral College votes, and federal funding distribution, these population estimates derive from government records and internal Census Bureau data. The release of 2025 estimates was postponed due to a federal shutdown last fall.
Recent cost-cutting measures, including workforce reductions at the Census Bureau, have raised concerns about potential political interference. However, Frey assures that the bureau’s staff remains committed to conducting their work without external influence. “So I have no reason to doubt the numbers that come out,” Frey stated.
For ongoing coverage of the U.S. Census Bureau, visit the Associated Press.
