The political landscape in Venezuela remains complex following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military, an event that opposition supporters have long anticipated. Despite Maduro’s detention in New York on drug trafficking charges, the power structure of his regime persists, with significant figures maintaining control.
Venezuela’s opposition, which has received support from both Republican and Democratic U.S. administrations, envisioned replacing Maduro with their candidate, thus restoring democracy in the oil-rich nation. However, this vision faced a setback when U.S. President Donald Trump permitted Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to take the helm.
Many key opposition figures, including Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, are either imprisoned or in exile. “They were clearly unimpressed by the sort of ethereal magical realism of the opposition, about how if they just gave Maduro a push, it would just be this instant move toward democracy,” remarked David Smilde, a Tulane University professor with extensive experience studying Venezuela.
The United States conducted a military operation to capture Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, removing them from a military base in Caracas. Following this, President Trump announced that the U.S. would oversee Venezuela, casting doubt on Machado’s potential leadership.
“She doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within, the country,” Trump noted. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.” Machado’s staunch support for Trump, including her dedication of her Nobel Peace Prize to him and her endorsement of U.S. anti-drug trafficking efforts, has led to a decline in her domestic support.
The Controversial Election Outcome
Machado emerged as a formidable challenger to Maduro, yet she was prohibited from running in the 2024 presidential election. Consequently, her campaign selected retired ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia as their representative. Despite officials swiftly declaring Maduro the victor, Machado’s campaign presented evidence suggesting González had won decisively. The U.S. and other nations acknowledged González as the rightful winner.
Nevertheless, Venezuelans continue to associate Machado with the victory, and she remains an influential figure advocating for international backing to displace Maduro. In a recent television interview, Machado praised Trump’s actions without addressing the lack of support for her movement.
Prospects for a Fresh Election
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed reservations about Trump’s claim of U.S. governance over Venezuela, emphasizing instead the use of control over the country’s oil industry to instigate policy reforms. Although Venezuela holds the largest proven crude oil reserves, the timing of potential elections remains uncertain.
Venezuela’s constitution mandates an election within 30 days if a president is deemed “permanently unavailable.” Historically, such measures were followed when Hugo Chávez passed away in 2013. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham indicated an election is anticipated, but specifics were not provided.
Contrarily, Maduro’s allies in the judiciary declared his absence as “temporary,” negating the need for an immediate election. This allows the vice president, an unelected position, to assume power temporarily, extendable with legislative approval.
Opposition’s Uphill Battle
Venezuela’s Supreme Court omitted mention of the 180-day limit, sparking concerns that Rodríguez might extend her tenure. Machado criticized Rodríguez as “one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, narco-trafficking … certainly not an individual that can be trusted by international investors.”
If elections proceed, Machado and González must navigate their return to Venezuela. González has been residing in Spain since September 2024, while Machado left Venezuela recently after attending her Nobel Prize ceremony in Norway.
Ronal Rodríguez from Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario warned of potential impacts on Venezuela’s “democratic spirit” due to U.S. engagement with Rodríguez. “What the opposition did in the 2024 election was to unite with a desire to transform the situation in Venezuela through democratic means, and that is embodied by María Corina Machado and, obviously, Edmundo González Urrutia,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of recognizing their efforts.
