Analyzing the Impact of Bail Reform on Crime Rates During the Pandemic
During the Covid-19 pandemic, a notable rise in violent crime led to finger-pointing at bail reform by many political figures and media outlets. However, a recent study conducted by the Brennan Center and Smith College economics professor Terry-Ann Craigie found no evidence to support this claim.
Understanding the Bail System
Bail involves the conditions under which an accused individual can be released while awaiting trial. In the U.S., this often includes a financial deposit or pledge, known as money bail. This system can result in individuals’ freedom being contingent on their financial status. Consequently, those unable to afford bail may remain in jail for extended periods, while wealthier individuals can secure their release.
Racial Disparities in Money Bail
Money bail has been identified as a contributor to racial disparities within the justice system. Research highlights that Latino individuals often face higher bail amounts compared to their white counterparts. Moreover, only 33 percent of Latino individuals can afford to pay bail when given the option.
Efforts and Challenges in Bail Reform
Bail reform is not a new concept but has gained momentum recently. In 2017, New Jersey, under then-Gov. Chris Christie, significantly reduced reliance on money bail, opting for a system that evaluates flight risk and likelihood of reoffending. New York and Illinois followed suit by implementing similar reforms in 2020 and 2023, respectively. However, these reforms have become a contentious issue, particularly in the context of the spike in violent crime during the pandemic.
Investigating the Link Between Bail Reform and Crime Rates
To examine the potential connection between bail reform and crime rates, the Brennan Center analyzed data from 33 cities between 2015 and 2021. Among these, 22 cities had enacted some form of bail reform. The study used statistical methods to determine if crime rates varied between cities with and without bail reform.
The research found no statistically significant correlation between bail reform and overall crime or violent crime specifically. The findings were consistent across various statistical approaches, indicating that bail reform did not influence crime rates in the observed cities. Neither did large-scale reforms, such as those in New Jersey and New York, affect crime trends.
Broader Implications and Misconceptions
The results align with other research, suggesting that no single factor, including bail reform, can drastically alter crime trends. Contrary to the belief that bail reform increases crime, it appears to have reduced recidivism in New York City. Additionally, a separate study found no relationship between decreasing jail populations and crime rates.
Critics of bail reform often misunderstand its purpose. The objective is not to allow individuals to evade accountability but to prevent the pre-trial incarceration of those who cannot afford bail, ensuring that financial status does not dictate freedom.
